I got a "problem" that may be related.
When I do kanchou and try to catch the opponent mid air with pummel horse, I get battletoads most of the time.
I use lp+lk macro, and the input list tells me I did forward, hk, lp+lk in this order, but I still get battletoads. Only times I get pummel horse is when I delay heavily the pummel horse input, so I guess there is some interaction with the end of the recovery. I don't think it is negative edge as I tend to not release the buttons until I see the move come out.
Also, it never happens when I do the same thing after a level 3.
I use a 360 controller, if that helps.
EDIT : it never happens when I use the "hold lp+lk, then input forward + hk" trick.
May have the opportunity to record this evening.