I'll analyze matches a bit later but here's a quick rundown of what I saw in Round 2:
0:15 This is what people sometimes call a "scramble" situation. A lot of jumping and trying to get control. A possible thing you could have done here is remain grounded and tried to jab bella in the air! Even if it got blocked you would have some frame advantage. These kinds of jumping situations are things you can test in training mode> program a bella dummy jumping around trying to tag with you with j.lk. Test your responses to it. How about their assist calls? Would it be a better choice for me to backdash or do something that would let me create more distance? I think anytime you run into an uncomfortable situation like this it should be your goal to test the situation in training mode and find EXACTLY what your options are! In this specific situation you pressed j.lk a lot- try j.lp instead! That has a wider hitbox and its much easier to hit people in these kinds of scramble situations.
Test out these situations vs every character too- characters like Fukua or Big Band can be pretty scary in those situations.
0:20 Great first reset! Just be careful of resetting bella on the ground- but that was awesome.
0:25 A bit of a mishap but I saw what you were going for. As a different crossunder setup try something like j.mp j.mk j.hk(fastfall) crossunder jab! It works way better I think :)
0:28 I like j.lk adc j.lk j.mp but it's funky on bella and you weren't ready to confirm off of it. I'd suggest finding a quick way to convert off of it (s.lp should work fine and hit regardless of char/crouch/standing)
0:35 You could have had Bella right here, try only doing two hits of s.hk! It's way more consistent from any range and on any character
0:40 Nice incoming! Diablos used to hit me with that all the time.
0:45 Like the idea, but not quite the right reset. Contrary to bella, I think PW is a little easier to reset on the ground. If you wanted to do a crossup try restand instant j.lk adc j.lp > l gato reset.
0:49 I understand the idea, but s.lp would have been a better choice here.
1:00 You had 3 meter, I'm almost certain that a short ground chain into DHC 1 or 2 times would have killed her. It's always worth spending the meter to kill! Nice burst bait after anyway though
1:11 that was sick omg
1:20 this whole sequence while he was in the corner was pretty good, but remember that Jab into c.lk keeps them grounded. People love to upback on defense anytime they're uncomfortable- find normals that will keep them glued to the ground where you can make them eat their butchers blade game. I also think that it's better to go for airthrow sooner rather than later if they're upbacking a lot- even if they tech it, they're not going to want to keep upbacking.
1:29 could have killed, I think you just made a little execution error.
1:57 This range is where you like to fiber a lot. JMZ didn't really play to that, but be careful about relying on this option too much at this range. Don't underestimate fortunes mobility and groudngame. Look at other ways in- how would he respond to dash in max range c.lk s.hp(you can even combo this into Rekkas if you want!) Would it be better to try for airdash height approach? How about just neutral jumping and seeing how they respond? Test different things at this range- even if you mess up, it's worth it to understand how your opponent will respond to said things.
2:11 Fortunately it worked out, but just be really careful about your airdash timing.
I only have time to analyze this one game- my primary observation is cleanliness. You won, sure, but it wasn't super clean. Practice your resets and combos ( 2 hits of s.hk with fortune is a lifesaver). Spend more time in training mode to figure out how to handle scramble situations like against his Bella early on.
For cleaning up bad habits, spend entire games PRACTICING not calling assists or relying on autopilot habits. What I mean by this is literally go into a game and say "I am not going to mash autopilot assist" and focus on that sole thing- EVEN if it means you will lose focus on the rest of the match and lose more. It's necessary to clean up said habits.
Your fortune looks solid- and with some cleanup I know it could be really strong. I get the sense your hands get kind of stiff when you play in tournament- I had the same problem. Relax them. You'll have better dexterity and be more calm.