So I've been thinking a lot, and that's never a good thing. Long post incoming. Please keep in mind that this is mostly speculation and some opinion based on a TON of assumptions.
I've been looking at the incarnations that have yet to be confirmed playable. These incarnations are Kushi and Altun, Narssus, Kaldi, Toko, George, Antoine, Zahra, Tenoch, Lanshi, Tatanka, Leilani, Hassam, Kogi, Sangmu. There are 14 incarnations, and 9 spots left on the 24 incarnation roster.
I'm going to assume (and hope) that the backer incarnations do not count towards this total and are end game+ content. If they do count towards the 24 total, then there are 6/7 spots left on the roster. This means we are looking at 5-8 incarnations from the original 28 being cut as playable, assuming there are no curve balls like Ginseng and Honey in the mix.
I've been staring at this picture a lot, and assuming that it is still somewhat relevant, there's a few things that can be gleamed from this picture
The following incarnations are probably locks, based on the picture:
Leilani, Tenoch, Sangmu, Zahra, Lanshi
The following incarnations are probably cut (pictures are at the bottom, still uses indiegogo designs, no sticky notes):
Hassam, Antoine (I highly doubt this is Kaldi, it's missing the white headband he wears and has what looks like Antoine's ruff), and most likely
Toko
This leaves
Kushi and Altun, Narssus, Kaldi, George, Tatanka, and Kogi vying for 1-4 spots. This is where speculation has been pretty hot. I'm going to try and rank these guys based on who is the most likely to make it into the game and who is the least likely to make it.
Narssus - Mechanically, he doesn't really clash with anyone and he was decently popular. He'll also balance out the roster a bit and has reference potential.
George - He literally only beat Kushi on this list because Ajna needs to unlock the spear. If there is another way for her to unlock it, he'll definitely be lower. Offers interesting mechanics and is different aesthetically, but he wasn't that popular.
Kushi and Altun - She was popular, so that will definitely weigh pretty heavily. However, her duo theme is taken by Ginseng and Honey, and the roster is a bit oversaturated with cute little girls at this point. Popularity and game play could still save her.
Tatanka - He's popular with certain people. Does have overlap in terms of combat theme and culture, but brings "buff male mage" to the table, which is pretty unique.
Kaldi - Popularity (and personal preference, this list is kind of biased) holds him down, but he has an interesting aesthetic, shape, and weaponry. Slight overlap with new Vasco kind of put him in danger.
Kogi - I love this buff chef, but his wok has some overlap with Ginseng and Honey (Man these guys are spanners in the work) and his giant knife has potential overlap with Dhar. Even his whole buff dude spiel is taken by other characters who are more likely to make it in.
Hopefully there will be some word on backer incarnations and npcs soon, especially on how many there are and whether or not they count towards the 24 total. I used to think that there was only 1 backer incarnation and that's why the number was changed from 25 to 24, but I guess not. This is starting to become a bit of a nailbiter...