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Guilty Gear Thread

On Xrd's music: Lily of Steel (Millia's Theme) is probably my favorite track from the game I've heard so far
 
Spencer said:
That doesn't make it "not rare". Since it is random, it is governed by some probalistic rule. Since it is so governed, it will even itself out over time. While it may be common relative to a few matches, it is likely not common in general.

Similarly, there are people who have won the lottery twice, that doesn't make it "not rare", but in probability, sometimes the "not probable" does happen.

Clashing is fairly rare in Guilty Gear as well so it's as "rare" as clashing considering the fact that it's random. This means at any point you clash, you may run into Danger Time and the person that gets a hit confirm can capitalize on it with a huge reward. It's ridiculous and as I stated before, nothing good is lost from having it removed. ASW should throw it to the wayside like they did with charging specials in GG1, the turn button mechanic in Isuka and the strength tier based clash mechanic in the early version of Xrd.
 
Shin ATproof said:
Clashing is fairly rare in Guilty Gear as well so it's as "rare" as clashing considering the fact that it's random. This means at any point you clash, you may run into Danger Time and the person that gets a hit confirm can capitalize on it with a huge reward.

This is what I was responding to. Mathematically, it isn't true. In short, it's not as rare as clashing. It is more rare than clashing since it is both predicated on the clash occurring and ostensibly some random number generator on top of that. Since it has a chance to happen on a clash, that means it won't happen every clash.

Let's say it is as high a 10% chance (from the sound of it, it seems much lower). That means for it to happen on your first clash there is a 10% chance (doi), on your second clash, a 1% chance, on your third clash 0.10% chance to happen, and it will continue to get infinitesimally smaller per clash. And so while you do have a 10% chance per clash, the odds of it happening anywhere close to "every" time is almost nil. In fact, over a long enough time, it will even out to ~10% of the time.

If a clash is rare enough that it happens once per match then you're looking at Danger Time occurring, on average, every 10 matches.

Note: all numbers are hypothetical.

tl;dr Danger Time is both rare and more rare than just a clash.

Shin ATproof said:
It's ridiculous and as I stated before, nothing good is lost from having it removed. ASW should throw it to the wayside like they did with charging specials in GG1, the turn button mechanic in Isuka and the strength tier based clash mechanic in the early version of Xrd.

Agreed on the caveat that I've not played it and so who knows, it's a long shot, but maybe I love it... though doubtful as I generally despise RNG mechanics.
 
I think that clashing with Overdrives, Bursts, or IKs (or Force Breaks if they ever come back) should force Danger Time. Maybe have the chance of Danger Time increase the more times clashes or rejections occur in a short period of time as well.
 
Has the developers commented on the negative reaction to danger time? Does the Japan audience actually like it? Difference between that and Persona S Hold is danger zone can be obnoxious with the random factor/payout while S Hold was just largely irrelevant for most scenarios and nobody really cared about the possible removal.
 
Spencer said:
tl;dr Danger Time is both rare and more rare than just a clash.

It could be 50% chance for all we know. Playing 20+ hours of the arcade version and watching others play, Danger Time happened about as frequent as clashing, which isn't all that common to begin with. However, it happened enough times for people to take notice. It could possibly less than 50%; it's hard to tell when it's random but to argue otherwise and say it's rarer is falling into a gambler's fallacy and predicated on the hopes that the mechanic isn't as troublesome as it appears.
 
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I think you misused the fallacy. It is just saying that the probability of something stays the same. If it has a 10% chance of occurring the first time, it has a 10% chance to occur the thousandth time. I was merely talking about the law of large numbers and the odds of something occurring in a series (getting a 1/10 chance 3 times in a row).

In any case, I was simple arguing against two statements which are both untrue.

Shin ATproof said:
it can happen as often as clashing occurs since it's random.

Only true in the short term. The law of large numbers means it will flatten out to its true chance over time. Is it possible that it happens every time in a match? Yes... in fact, at times for some matches, it will. Is it possible that it will happen every time? No.

Shin ATproof said:
Clashing is fairly rare in Guilty Gear as well so it's as "rare" as clashing considering the fact that it's random.

Only true if DT has a 100% chance to occur on clash. Even taking your number at 50% (and I think the consensus is that it is far lower than that, but that is beside the point), then it, of course, has a 50% chance to occur on clash.
 
I really like the new roman cancel system, but I'm not an old school player. Danger time is stupid though. I'm sure the game will only get faster with more updates. You have to compare Xrd to the original ggxx and to some extent the original blazblue, not +R. It's a different game and it will end up being different, and imo that's a good thing.
 
Spencer said:
I think you misused the fallacy. It is just saying that the probability of something stays the same. If it has a 10% chance of occurring the first time, it has a 10% chance to occur the thousandth time. I was merely talking about the law of large numbers and the odds of something occurring in a series (getting a 1/10 chance 3 times in a row).



Your "argument" is still hinging on the probability of it being lower than clashing when in actuality it's random and likely 50% if you want to throw a percentage of the chance of it occurring. You keep bringing up this mysterious "consensus" that says the chances of Danger Time is lower than a regular clash and that falls into the gambler's fallacy. If you flip a coin, it's a 50/50 chance of being one side or the other. Simply because 9/10 of the flips is heads doesn't mean the chance isn't still 50/50 it'll be heads or tails. The result is random but the probability is still the same. In Guilty Gear Xrd, since your only possible results are: A regular Clash and Danger Time, and it's random, the probability of getting Danger Time is as rare as clash, not rarer.
 
Grangach said:
I really like the new roman cancel system, but I'm not an old school player. Danger time is stupid though. I'm sure the game will only get faster with more updates. You have to compare Xrd to the original ggxx and to some extent the original blazblue, not +R. It's a different game and it will end up being different, and imo that's a good thing.

I think the Roman Cancel system does some good things along with some bad. I like that they've simplified some of the more timing specific aspects of the old Roman Cancel system and they've made it easier and more useful to bind moves into a combo. Still not a fan of the slowdown and uses for option selects. Also the slowdown effect in a game that's already slower than what GG has been for years doesn't really feel all that great to me but the core game will likely be sped up in later installment as per usual with ASW updates.
 
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who cares about Jam
i wanna know about that Haiku Contest
I bet Slayer knocked the competition right outta there
 
What I wanna know is when are we gonna get the English Compilation of all the Instant Kills.
Dying to know what the fuck Bedman says during Faust's IK
 
[QUOTE="Shin ATproof, post: 219168, member:
Your "argument" is still hinging on the probability of it being lower than clashing when in actuality it's random and likely 50% if you want to throw a percentage of the chance of it occurring. You keep bringing up this mysterious "consensus" that says the chances of Danger Time is lower than a regular clash and that falls into the gambler's fallacy.
[/Quote]

How? Gambler's fallacy would be if I claimed that since there were 3 clashes without DT then the next one would have a better chance of having a DT... I'm saying now such thing.

Using your own number, let's assume it is 50%... that means each time it happens, it is 50%.

Every... fucking... time... 50%.

So whether there is one clash or 100 clashes per match, it is still 50% (your number) Yup, every... fucking... time. So by definition, the probability of DT occurring less than clashes is unequivocally true. Why? Because it hinges on a clash. In other words, per clash there will be ~.5 DT occurrence. But wait, per DT occurrence, there will be only 1 clash occurrence. Because DT is predicated on a clash. As in depends on it. As in you can't have DT without clash. As in... you get it, I think, right?

But I do see your fundamental misunderstanding of this. It is in this sentence here:

In Guilty Gear Xrd, since your only possible results are: A regular Clash and Danger Time, and it's random, the probability of getting Danger Time is as rare as clash, not rarer.

So let me lay it out super nice and easy using your 50% number mark:

There are two occurrences:
1: Clash
2: Clash > Danger Time

That means two clashes per Danger Time or 2:1 or 50/50 or 50% which means # of Clashes > # of Danger time (by ~50% over a large sample size).
 
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Shin ATproof said:
If those mental backflips were actual backflips, you'd win you a gold medal in the olympics, bruh.

Had this as an edit, but since you responded, I'll post it here.

Admittedly, I am being a tad nitpicky. I get what you are saying. You're effectively saying that given a 50% chance to occur on clash, you'll get DT just as frequently as you'll get just a normal clash.

The reason I'm being nitpicky is because this is only the case if we are talking about the chance being >=50%, something you're taking for free and providing no argument for aside from "feels like to me".

So link something that at least half conforms to this 50% notion. Meanwhile, I'll dig up some of what I feel lend argument to the idea that DT occurs infrequently even relative to a clash.

Bruh
 
What you "feel" is irrelevant. It doesn't matter if you "feel" it's infrequent when the mechanic is random and only one of two occurrences will happen every time and it's related to something attached to a mechanic that traditionally happens infrequently in matches to begin with.
 
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