Yo guys. If you plink s.HP with your corresponding assist button (HP,LK for Assist 1 or HP,MK for Assist 2) during your cr.MK,s.HP gatling with Painwheel, it sets up a perfect timing for Eliza's Carpenter's Axe (It's a fairly large window during or before cr.MK active frames). This will catch Up+Back, despite being an overhead (Meaning they have to stand block). I'm looking into Option-selects/set plays, because I think you can use it to body a lot of reversal supers/DPs. It looks like it can stop certain characters from advancing forward during their animations, allowing Painwheel to punish.
It looks like it also generates hitstop for both characters (More on Eliza). This opens the door for a lot of setups/confirms in a variety of situations... maybe.
If you call assist, then cancel your s.HP into Fly, then unfly, and block until after the Overhead connects, you get a nice High then Low that should win out against 1st frame reversals fairly universally that's easy to confirm off of. Mix this with other stuff to keep them guessing.
Carpenter's Axe might also be pretty sweet for the Peacock matchup. Look at that range, and all that armor. *drool*
I'm ogling Painwheel/Eliza/Double with a return to Bomber. My experiments with Cilia Slide helped a lot.